The successful mission to snatch Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro and his wife reminded me of the phrase coined by long-time New York Times columnist and Pulitzer Prize winner Thomas Friedman when the U.S. was considering invading Iraq. He called it the pottery store rule: “If you break it, you own it.”
Colin Powell used that phrase behind closed doors when he was trying to temper the hawks in the George W. Bush administration as they planned the invasion of Iraq. The ramifications are political and practical.
On the practical level, the issue is what comes after there is regime change, or in the case of Venezuela, the removal of the country’s dictator? There is a natural vacuum to be filled. Maybe it will be better, but who really knows? So far, it appears not much has changed.
Trump said Saturday the U.S. would “run the country” in the interim and that he was not afraid to put boots on the ground if necessary. Venezuela’s Vice-President Delcy Rodriguez has been sworn in as interim president. She was part of Maduro’s inner circle and has demanded his release. However, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he has talked with her, and she is willing to do “whatever the U.S. asks.”
So, who really knows whose side she is on?
The future leadership of a country of 30-million people is in question. After all, Maduro left behind his cabal of henchmen who helped him remain in power. Would we support putting U.S. soldiers in harm’s way if Venezuela dissolves into chaos or the new leaders are just as bad as the old?
On a political level, the Venezuelan raid triggered more fracturing of the MAGA base. Some on the far right want to know what part of “America First” involves another foreign entanglement? The conservative news outlet The Bulwark said the raid creates a “divide between right-wing personalities and their audiences.”
“Even as Trump celebrates the operation and suggests future raids in Mexico and Colombia, it seems like even hardcore MAGA fans aren’t buying what he’s selling. At the same time, Maduro’s capture has put Trump’s media supporters in a bind: defend Trump or appease their isolationist audiences,” said The Bulwark.
U.S. Senators Shelley Moore Capito and Jim Justice, both Trump supporters, back the raid, praising the work of the U.S. military and the removal of an illegitimate leader who they say was responsible for the flow of illegal drugs into this country.
The drug argument is overstated. The most recent report from the DEA concludes the Mexican cartels and their networks are “the primary groups producing illicit synthetic drugs driving U.S. drug poisoning deaths,” and the chemicals for fentanyl and methamphetamine are sourced from China.
So, what is the true aim of regime change in Venezuela? Trump has talked a lot about reconstituting the petroleum infrastructure in the oil-rich country using the assets and expertise of U.S. companies. Trump claims oil companies are anxious to return to the country—Chevron remained there even after Venezuela nationalized the energy industry in the 1970s—but the big producers are cautious.
“We’ve been expropriated from Venezuela two different times,” Exxon Mobile CEO Darren Woods told Bloomberg News in November. “We’d have to see what the economics look like.” However, Trump is scheduled to meet with leaders of the oil industry Friday, so their positions may change.
All the oil references by Trump make it sound like the removal of Maduro and the commitment to “run the country” are more of a business deal than anything else. Maybe there will be future shortages, but the world is awash in oil currently. Adding more oil out of Venezuela would only depress prices for the oil companies.
But back to Friedman’s analysis. The rule holds true for Venezuela just as it did for Iraq and any other country that removes the leadership of another. Trump is now indelibly linked to the immediate and long-term future of Venezuela. Early victory laps will be followed by a marathon covered with obstacles and a lot of shattered pottery.