Listen to “Commentary – TJ Meadows” on Spreaker.
West Virginia Republicans have gone and done it — again — as the saying goes.
This weekend’s GOP Winter Meeting presented an opportunity to re-examine the decision to close the Republican primary to Independent voters. That opportunity never saw the light of day.
Instead, the issue was ultimately dismissed without a direct vote, somewhat cloaked in parliamentary procedure. A member’s motion to rescind the original amendment to close the primary met another motion to postpone indefinitely the motion to rescind. The vote to postpone was adopted through a voice vote — conveniently avoiding a recorded tally that would have put names to positions. A motion to adjourn quickly followed. It smells of accountability by omission, not unlike the kid in right field hoping the ball never comes his way.
Veteran newsman and friend of Talkline Steven Allen Adams filed a full report Saturday.
To be clear, this is a decision squarely within the party’s authority. It is their primary. They are entitled to manage it as they see fit. That point is not in dispute.
The real question is whether Independent voters — now solidly locked out — will continue to support Republican candidates in general elections.
Here’s the reality: Republicans make up just 43 percent of registered voters in West Virginia. That pattern largely holds county by county. Translation: Republicans do not win statewide elections without Independent support or crossover votes from Democrats.
A poll conducted by the West Virginia Leadership Fund found that 64 percent of Independent voters cast a ballot for Donald Trump, compared with 20 percent for Joe Biden. Yet the same survey shows that 70 percent of Independents are not considering switching their registration to Republican. Nearly two-thirds say they are less likely — or unsure they would — vote for Republican candidates in the general election if excluded from voting in the GOP primary.
Those driving this decision within the party appear unfazed by such data.
“Unfortunately, this was pushed by elected state leaders,” said former state GOP chair Melody Potter in a facebook post. “I witnessed this from being [brought] back up, being discussed, and being voted on. The issue is important enough that it should’ve been discussed and voted on regardless of the results. I never thought I would see the day that people were shut down. This was no fault of the chairman… This is nothing short of divisive and it’s sad.”
Governor Morrisey was reportedly supportive of the move to close the primary when the idea first emerged. Multiple sources in the party say his mind is unchanged on the matter. Those in his camp are said to have actively lobbied this go around as well to keep primaries closed.
Potter is right. This is protectionist politics at its finest; it ignores the temperament of many Independent voters who are deeply conservative in outlook. Their only “offense” is a refusal to affiliate with a political environment they view as absolutist, rigid, and hostile to the individualism they value.
Again, Republicans are free to run their primary however they wish.
But consequences follow choices.
Republican operative Rob Cornelius appeared on Talkline last week and was asked whether Republicans can win general elections without Independent voters. His response: “Well yeah, we’ve won every election, they’re pretty much unnecessary now because Independents will vote for whatever they want.”
The follow-up question was direct: You have no problem if they don’t vote Republican in the general election because they’re excluded from the primary?
“They don’t care,” Cornelius said. “Independents don’t care. By virtue of the way they register, they’ve demonstrated their lack of concern in the process.”
Listen to the full interview with Cornelius here.
And so, the issue is framed.
Will Independent voters care? Are they truly unnecessary? Can Republicans win while dismissing them entirely?
Maybe.
But with only 43 percent of registered voters, that dismissal — that banishment to the kids’ table — may prove a step too far.
Independent voters would be entirely within their rights to ask every Republican candidate this fall whether they support or oppose an open primary — and to weigh that answer when casting their ballots.
Prediction: those Republicans challenging incumbent Republicans, especially in the Senate, will make this an issue. It perfectly captures the juxtaposition of traditional conservatives to that of new populist conservatives.
Dems will seize on it as well in the general election saying Republican candidates do not value Independent voters and actively tried to diminish the power of their votes.
Just as Republicans have the right to manage their primary as they see fit, they also bear the consequences of that decision.
Time will determine whether they chose wisely, or not.